Fixed Income Market Insights
Our latest insights on bond market activity
Repricing the Fed: Rate Cuts Deferred, MUNI Demand Holds
Fund flows: Investors added $1.25 billion from municipal bond mutual funds in the week ended Jan. 7, 2026, according to the Investment Company Institute.
MUNI Market Update: Record Supply, Stable Yields, and Rate-Cut Debate
American public schools went on a borrowing binge in 2025, marking the sector’s biggest year for municipal debt sales in over a decade as dipping enrollment and elevated inflation strain districts’ budgets. School systems around the US issued about $82 billion in muni...
MUNI Market Update: Inflows, Inflation Progress, and Rate-Cut Outlook
Investors continue to add funds to MUNI bond funds; last week, 260MM was added from retail investors. The prior week saw a 262MM inflow, indicating that retail investors have been seeking tax-exempt paper over the past few months. The overall calendar continues to...
Read our latest musings about actions and events affecting the investment landscape.
Rate Cuts, Weak Labor Data, and the Search for the Next Fed Chair
We have continued to report on fund flows – investors added 253MM to MUNI funds in the week ended 12/3/25, the previous week saw 217MM inflow, according to the Investment Company Institute.
Shifts in Federal Education Oversight and Mixed Fed Signals Shape Year-End MUNI Tone
We have been discussing higher education as well as health care for quite a while. The Trump administration said it will transfer some of the Education Department’s most extensive grant programs and major portions of several offices to other federal agencies, part of a broader plan to reduce the department’s authority significantly.
Negotiated vs. Competitive New Bond Issues – Does It Matter to the Investor?
When investors buy municipal bonds, they give very little attention to how the issue comes to market. The question here is, does it really matter?
Illinois RTA Credit Strengthens; Markets Brace for Possible December Rate Cut
Moody’s indicated it may upgrade the Illinois Regional Transportation Authority’s debt after the state legislature moved to eliminate the public transit system’s budget shortfalls.
MUNI Supply Outlook Grows and Fed Faces Data Gaps
Many are indicating the MUNI bond market will be set for a record supply next year. I have seen as much as 600B predicted in 2026, which is up 4% YOY. Refunding volume and taxable issuance are expected to remain flat at approximately $112 billion and $36 billion,...
Fed Delivers 25bps Cut, QT to End Dec. 1 — MUNIs Steady, Yields in Motion
Zohran Mamdani’s lead in the New York City mayor’s race over former Governor Andrew Cuomo has narrowed less than a week before Election Day, according to a Quinnipiac University poll.
Government Shutdown & Data Void Complicate Fed’s Path Forward
A larger tax on Harvard’s $57B endowment will hurt the school’s ability to address the very problems the US government wants it to focus on.
Muni Yields Set to Move Lower as Fed Signals Cut and Fiscal Risks Rise
• NY Mayoral front runner Zohran Mamdani’s pledge to fund free childcare and bus rides by taxing the rich faces steep odds in Albany NY. But tax hikes may be coming for New Yorkers anyway, regardless of who wins.
Markets in Holding Pattern as Fed Eyes Cuts & Government Remains Closed
As we have discussed, MUNIs for September finished strong. Many are calling for the balance of the year to remain firm because most of the record surge in supply is beginning to dry up.